The economic outlook for Nebraska farmers and ranchers is varied and complicated.
Nebraska Farm Bureau Economist and Policy Analyst Abygail Petersen said 2026 will be challenging, and 2027 may be more challenging.
Petersen discussed agricultural forecasts and variables with about 50 people at the Seward County Farm Bureau’s annual member appreciation banquet Feb. 15.
Low loan repayment rates and low farm income may contribute to increasing consolidation and financial issues in 2028 unless markets and conditions improve for cattle and crops. She said inflation has increased and she hopes interest rates may be cut once during 2026.
The Nebraska outlook is different from national projections, she said, because the imports of beef and soybeans affect other regions differently and markets are responding to social and political news across the country.
“I am not the most optimistic going into this year,” Petersen said.
Still, she said most Nebraska farmers and ranchers will make it through 2026 and 2027, and she is not ready to agree with some others who say there is a broad crisis in farming.
“It is a good thing the markets are stable. That is kind of why farm income has been OK,” she said.
Petersen said farm credit seems to be doing well, but when farm bankruptcies and loan repayment rates are studied, it is clear some farmers are struggling.
“We are seeing a lot of small operators not being able to make it,” Petersen said. “One bad year we can do. Two bad years we can do.”
But if that grows to four or five years, difficult conversations will be needed.
Crops costly
Petersen said farmers need crop markets to improve this year and next to minimize challenges in 2028.
The cost of growing corn and soybeans is high, she said.
“But there is not one crop that is better to plant,” she said.
Last year, Nebraska farmers lost $87 per acre on corn, $61 per acre on soybeans and $91 per acre on sorghum. Those numbers do not factor in crop insurance payments.
She said the break-even point for soybeans was a couple of dollars higher than the average bushel price as of Feb. 10. The gap was a little higher for wheat and about 70 cents for corn.
Unfortunately, the markets also mean there is high stock of corn and beans, Petersen said.
Those numbers may be different from the national data because of competition with China and other market factors.
She said markets for E15 fuel would help, “but I don’t think it is going to save corn necessarily.”
She also noted that changes in Trump Administration ag markets could change things.
“I am hoping for a positive trend starting in 2027,” she said. “I wish it were more positive. I think for new producers, it is going to be very, very tough.”
Cattle herds steady
Petersen said cattle herd sizes are not expanding, and she does not expect growth until 2028.
But the regional cattle market remains strong, in part because consumers are “sticking with beef” even though prices have increased to levels that would usually trigger drops in sales.
“There is a huge demand for beef and a huge demand for protein,” she said.
That market remains volatile and sensitive to political and social events.
The recent closure of the Tyson beef processing plant in Lexington may not impact Nebraska cattle producers because the inventory of cattle to be processed is low and because the processing plant in North Platte contracts with Walmart for beef.
“We will not see a noticeable impact until we have higher inventory,” Petersen said.
However, if cattle inventory grows over the next four or more years and a major packing plant were to close, Nebraskans would see the impact.
She also said marketing Nebraska’s carbon pipeline could also help increase markets for corn in places like California.
Nebraska sells a lot of ethanol to California and not all states have carbon pipelines.
Asked what Seward County ag producers could do to impact the markets, Petersen encouraged them to let Farm Bureau and other ag organizations know when they see issues that could be addressed by policy or legislation, as well as reaching out to their elected officials.
“In my opinion, sharing your concerns and thoughts is going to be the most effective method,” Petersen said.
